The Summer of Russian Discontent

I've recently been rereading some of my old commentaries and have found some to be of relevance today. As this is a new forum and some of you are just discovering or rediscovering the joy of me I've decided to republish a select few from time to time.

The Summer of Russian Discontent was originally published on July 14, 2007 and here it is:

The Russian Federation has announced it is suspending it's participation in the Conventional Forces in Europe Treaty. Theoretically clearing the way for a massive build up of tanks and other conventional armaments aimed at Europe. Will it happen? Probably not. Russia is unhappy with it's diminished role on the international stage since the fall of the Soviet Union. It seeks to be relevant and is flirting with the mechanisms that gave it's predecessor teeth in the international community.

When the Soviet Union and it's communist ideology were defeated a rare opportunity was missed by the west. Perhaps it was due to the fatigue of fighting a multi-decade cold war and perhaps it was just simple short sightedness, either way the roosters are coming home and the world has a growing problem. Contrary to the brief belief of post Cold War politicians the world is far more dangerous now than at anytime in history. Russia doesn't like being on the sidelines and once again wants to command the world's attention.

Vladimir Putin's rise to power was inevitable given the lack of full engagement by the U.S. and Europe into Russia's emerging democracy under Boris Yeltsin. Yeltsin was in the right place at the right time to give the rallying cry but lacked the vision and fortitude to make the new Russia work. Putin, the creation of the KGB, was more than capable of seizing personal opportunity. He has amassed tremendous power in his realm and is now reluctant to give it up, so he won't. Whether the parliament "forces" him to accept a constitutional change allowing him to run again in 2012, Putin is in charge of Russia and will remain so for a long time. He is rattling his saber and does not recognize that he has an unusual opportunity to not only garner more power for himself but to revive Russia's place on the international stage by being an agent of change and peace. By joining with Europe and the U.S. to crackdown on rogue regimes such as Iran he would be luring major western investment into Russia. He could position himself as an arbiter between the west and those nasty crevices where Russian intelligence still walks.

Russia must be watched carefully in the months to come. We cannot afford to misread Putin's intentions and thus start another Cold War. We also must not miss any opportunity to provide Russia with an out from pursuing a military build up which could bankrupt her and threaten us.