Beware the Bear

In keeping with the Russian theme, here is another commentary from the past. I originally published "Beware the Bear" on August 15, 2008 and here it is:

Watching the conflict this week between Russia and Georgia I am reminded of a Ronald Reagan ad from his 1984 campaign. The ad showed quick glances of a bear moving through the forest while the narrator said "some people believe the bear is tame, others can't even see the bear..." The bear is alive and well and mauling in plain sight.

Today in the presence of U.S. Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice the President of Georgia signed a cease fire agreement, with a reciprocal signing to take place in Russia by Dimitri Medvedev. There was a cease fire agreement earlier in the week as well, will this new one fair better? Russian troops will apparently leave South Ossetia, except for Russian peacekeeping forces. Since Russia substantially contributed to the disruption of the peace exactly what is their function?

Last summer I wrote of Russia's discontentment, they're not discontented anymore, they have a plan and are executing it. The Soviet Union as an entity is not returning, but the expansion of a Russian Federation commonwealth of nations is being sought. Vladimir Putin is one of the smartest men to ever occupy a position of great power in his country. In the commonwealth he seeks he will employ all of the brutal tactics of his Soviet training but will employ western language to achieve international acquiescence. In the old days the Soviets would simply execute their opponents and drive their tanks through borders with no explanation. Putin is using tactics of national law as interpreted by the Russian Attorney General to justify his actions in Georgia. Even going so far as to assert that the Russian Federation has the right to militarily intervene anywhere that the dignity of Russian citizens is threatened.

Vladimir Putin and his team thoroughly understand the west. He also understands that communism as an ideology is dead, he has supplanted it with an even more powerful set of ideas, namely that of nationalism. It is not the old guard of Soviet bluster that the west now faces; it is a young generation, especially those who have substantially grown up under Putin, which will be shaping our relationship. That group has seen a major change in their own lives, for the economic better, under Putin. He has delivered an ever growing government controlled capitalism that is working.He has also fed their souls with nationalistic pride. These young people will gladly follow Vladimir Putin and the old have no reason or desire to turn back the clock or attempt to remove Putin.

It will be a grave mistake if the western powers accept some academics assertions that Russia is in decline as a state simply because it's population is growing smaller. Their population is currently around 142 million, history has taught us that even smaller populated countries have ruled large empires and forced their will upon the unprepared. Russia wants it's nearest former satellite countries back under it's control, denying this would be foolish. Aside from the use of assassination, which they are using, the new Russian tactic is to achieve it's goals through what it believes will be acceptable "legal" justifications. An assertion of national security concerns in an era of "war on terrorism" will be more difficult to rebuff than some in our country may believe.

South Ossetia and Abkhazia are provinces in Georgia which, so we are told, do not wish to remain a part of Georgia. They want an alliance with Russia or rather to be a part of Russia. How do we accurately gage if this is true? The presence of so many people in these provinces with Russian issued passports and Russian "citizenship" seems suspect. Under Russian law their dignity is apparently being threatened, thus calling for intervention by the motherland.

Georgia has sought membership in NATO but has been met with resistance from of course Russia, but also the NATO alliance itself. This hesitation on NATO's part may very well be signaling Moscow that it may act with impunity. The west must wake up fast and admit the Ukraine to NATO without further delay. Georgia is merely an appetizer; it is the Ukraine that is intended to be the main course.

Today we have fast tracked the deployment of missile defense platforms in Poland, with the Poles further enhancing the agreement with a mutual defense pact with the U.S. in the event of any "problems" which may arise in the future. While the U.S. has always maintained that the missile platforms it sought to place in Poland and the Czech Republic are intended to defend Europe from attacks by rogue states such as Iran, the Russians believe it is aimed at them. Today a Russian general stated that Poland is now opening itself up to a potential nuclear assault by Russia because of it's acceptance of the missile platform. If Russia has no ill intent then it need not worry about the platforms.

The west needs to understand that while Russia's leaders are Soviet in training, they are now executing a different set of tactics to achieve their goals. They will without a doubt create crisis where there is none in order to move in and restore order but they will not be able to do this if Eastern Europe and the former Soviet satellites which are now in immediate danger are 100% in alliance with the west and the west has made it clear in exact language and treaty that it will defend it's allies no matter the cost.