Nyet

Well readers, you've just had a blast from the past with two commentaries on Russia from eight and seven years ago respectively.

Do you think we and that includes our allies, have done a good job analyzing Vladimir Putin and Russia? Have we learned our lessons? Have we siezed even the slightest of initiatives to bridge the gap?

My conclusion is nyet. If a blogger, such as myself, was writing about Russia's intentions for the Ukraine seven years ago, surely our experts in high places were thinking about it. After all, they are paid to think about it and form a strategy.

The famous reset button in 2009 was a cheesy but good idea. The only problem is, other than the stupid plastic red button with the wrong word on it, there was absolutely nothing to follow. No long-term strategy, no joint government and civilian objectives to achieve, just lumbering from one crisis and misstep to another.

So here we are. The Crimea is back in Russian hands, this will not be reversed no matter what we say or do. They consider it a matter of national security and guess what, history backs up their claim. The Ukraine will be chopped up. What remains will be a tiny crippled country dependent on the west for complete help, from soup to nuts. When the west ultimately lets them down and we will, they will turn to Russia for aid and they will come to the rescue, with conditions, but what remains of the Ukraine will be allowed to consider themselves a free country subject to review.

I can't give very good election predictions for our country in 2016 right now but I can predict without hesitation that Vladimir Putin will be reelected President of the Russian Federation in 2016. Barring a constitutional change he will once again be Prime Minister in 2020 and back to the Presidency in 2024.

You cannot sit back and wait out Putin.