kanesrealm

The first rule of politics is never underestimate your opponent. Every Republican candidate did this concerning Donald Trump. Not one of them took him on aggressively from day one. The presumptive nominee, Jeb Bush, allowed Trump to define him as a low energy clueless dolt for weeks before attempting what repeatedly was a weak counterattack. The rest of them ducked for cover hoping not to be a target. Trump chose Bush as his first victim because he knew that strategically he had to dispatch him quickly. Trump has repeated this pattern each time a new person rose in the ranks. But still the field failed to take his candidacy seriously. Donald Trump has been threatening to run for President since 1996. The Republican Party in theory should have a massive oppo research file on him but they don't. The reason is as simple as underestimating him and also repeatedly going to him for political donations. Like any smart businessman he has spread the wealth over both major parties and indiv

Last night the remaining five Republicans debated on CNN live from Houston, Texas. I wouldn't exactly call it an exercise in intellectual engagement but more of a National Geographic special, "when animals attack." Like a pair of rabid dogs Marco Rubio and Ted Cruz tried to double team and take down the lion, Donald Trump. Like all rabid dogs they can't be trusted and also bit each other. Contrary to the analysis of some pundits who are so afraid of a Trump victory, he was not harmed by the lesser jackals on stage. He proved without question that he can take a punch. It continues to amaze me how so many "experts" who are immersed in politics everyday still don't get the Trump phenomenon. He doesn't have to provide details about his policies. His supporters don't care about Trump University, undocumented workers building Trump Towers or being fined forty years ago for using Polish workers. No one, including me, cares about his tax returns. If Ru

One of the tactics being employed by the Clinton Campaign is to suggest that Bernie Sanders is anti Obama. This is for the purpose of motivating what they believe to be the Obama coalition, including African Americans, to vote against Sanders. It might seem like a good idea, but it's not. Clinton is wrapping herself around President Obama in spite of her own disagreements with him. For the Democratic Primaries it may be successful but in the general election this fall her portrayal as a third term of Obama will backfire. The Republicans are already emphasizing it and Clinton is giving them plenty of ammunition. What we know for certain is that Barack Obama has no coattails to ride. Bernie Sanders is not anti Obama but he has criticized him when he feels it's warranted. That is part of his authenticity. He has been attacked for his suggestion in 2011 on a radio program and in response to a question, that Obama should potentially face a primary challenge. There is nothing wrong

Here we go again. Candidate Obama made a huge (HUGE) deal about closing GITMO during the 2008 election. President Obama has done damn little to address it and now in the final year he wants to stir the hornets nest. He's not likely to succeed nor should he. By the gods (of which none exist) would someone please point out the fact that the terrorist suspects at GITMO are on American soil. Over and over again those opposing it's closing say the same thing, "we don't want these people on American soil." Guantanamo Bay is a military base and just like an Embassy it is considered to be American soil in the eyes of international law. An attack on such facilities/soil is an act of war. Guantanamo Bay is not the issue and it never has been. The geographical disposition of these suspects is irrelevant. Is there anyone with a functioning brain that believes we cannot safely confine these prisoners in our maximum security facilities including military prisons right here in

Winning the Presidential nomination of the two major parties is about the acquisition of delegates. In the Democratic Party this is a fairly complex endeavor and it's deliberately designed to be. The major media is engaged in a daily repetition that Hillary Clinton can't be beat, that Bernie Sanders just doesn't have a path to the nomination. Let's review some facts. As I write this Sanders and Clinton are tied with 51 delegates each. Clinton won Iowa by a mouse fart, Sanders crushed Clinton in New Hampshire and not because he's from Vermont. Clinton just won the Nevada Caucuses. She will in all likelihood win South Carolina especially now that she has the full support of Rep. Jim Clyburn who is an iconic figure in that State. Clinton has done a masterful job of spinning the narrative in the African-American community that Bernie Sanders has not been in their corner and has only recently took interest in their issues, this in spite of the fact that his support for

When last we metaphorically met Jeb Bush was plotting his long-term plans to take the nomination through a strong showing in South Carolina. He dropped out within a few hours of the polls closing. It couldn't have been an easy decision but it was the right decision, the man who would be king finally realized it was never going to happen. Ben Carson finished in an even weaker position and he has failed to catch fire in anyway in any of the contests so far. Here's the big reveal, he never will. He too should have already dropped out but he just can't bring himself to end his vanity campaign. Perhaps he thinks he can be a Vice-Presidential contender but that too is not going to happen. He wouldn't bring anything of value to the ticket. John Kasich is simply never going to build the enthusiasm necessary to succeed. He will be irrelevant, if not gone, after Super Tuesday. Ted Cruz came in third in South Carolina, proving that his alleged strength with evangelicals is not

Pope Francis appears to have criticized Donald Trump before leaving Mexico after his official visit. To be clear the Pontiff did not specifically name Trump. His statement was anyone seeking to build walls is not a Christian. We all know he meant Trump but frankly it could be widely applied across the political spectrum to Republicans and Democrats alike. The Pope's comments seem a bit off here. Vatican City is the world's smallest sovereign state, ironically a dictatorship. It has a formal government including a State Department with Ambassadors  throughout the world. It has a security apparatus which is not always apparent but can respond rapidly if needed. You cannot simply go there and live just because you want to, they have rules, very old rules. Every country has the right to enforce control of their own borders and to set it's own immigration policies. There are many Democracies in the world that have far stricter policies than the United States. As to criticisi

How often have you heard people say politics is just so nasty, it turns me off and that's why I don't get involved. If only we could be nicer and return to a better time when we respected each other and behaved in a good manner. That time never existed, it is a myth. Watching the Republican Debate last night with all the barbs flying back and forth I was reminded of this erroneous belief that nasty politics is unique to our modern times. Donald Trump repeatedly called Ted Cruz a liar. I would call Cruz a denier of fact for political gain, a distorter of reality to create a fog of confusion, a deceptive manipulator of people's fears for the sole purpose of gaining power for his own petty propensities. In the common tongue, a liar. In the early days of our Republic, newspapers frequently made up horrible things about politicians they wanted to destroy and fact checking was non-existent. The politicians themselves were no better, they bashed one another with vigor, includin

Supreme Court Justice Antonin Scalia died suddenly yesterday, he was 79. For almost thirty years he was one of the loudest and most colorful voices on the court. A staunch conservative and self described originalist, Scalia's ability to turn a phrase and intimidate lawyers appearing before the court was legendary. I disagree vehemently with many of Scalia's views but I liked and respected him. As he himself said of those he fought with, be they his fellow Justices or anyone else, just because I disagree with you doesn't mean I hate you. Naturally there are those who are already disgracing his memory and they're all Republicans. His death had barely been announced when the press releases started flying, not to express profound sympathy for the Scalia family but to send a loud message to President Obama that he shouldn't bother nominating anyone because it's an election year. Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell says the Senate won't take up the issue. Th

Far be it from me to toot my own horn but, toot toot. Alright maybe I don't deserve that second toot. I got the Republican lineup in New Hampshire right except Kasich was not within 5 points of Trump. Cruz squeaked in at number three with a 1 point difference between he and Bush. Trump's victory speech was delivered like he had just won an Oscar. I'd like to thank my family, my assistant and the academy. It took a long time to get to the thanking of the people of New Hampshire. I'm beginning to wonder if any of the other Republicans are going to be able to stop Donald Trump. The popular opinion among the pundits is that once it becomes a one on one race Trump will be taken down, I am not convinced. The question mark surrounding Trump is this; is he your loudmouth uncle that makes you cringe but essentially has a good heart or is he our own Mussolini? On the Democratic side my prediction was partially correct except for the fact that Clinton did not close the gap, she

I watched the ABC Republican Debate on Saturday night, unfortunately until they get down to two or three candidates left standing on the stage it's just not informative. It was fun to watch Chris Christie rip Marco Rubio to shreds. More interesting is to see that Rubio really does come across as a pod person. He is so programmed with his answers that they are not answers. It's one thing to be disciplined and stick to your message, it's quite another to appear incapable of thinking on your feet. I stand by my own analysis in contradiction to the talking heads prior to that debate, Rubio is not going to be the nominee and he will fizzle. New Hampshire votes tomorrow and I know you're on pins and needles waiting for my predictions. So it's game on. For the Republicans the order will be 1. Trump 2.Kasich 3. Bush 4.Rubio 5. Cruz. Now watch closely because Kasich is going to be within 5 points of Trump. If Republican primary voters going forward were thinking strategica

At the outset of the 2016 Presidential cycle the Democratic Party made the official decision that there would only be six debates for the entire campaign and they were spread out. Bernie Sanders always wanted more debates but the frontrunner Hillary Clinton was satisfied with the number, but still Bernie asked for more. The Chair of the party Debbie Wasserman Shultz said no. Low and behold the frontrunner is now motivated to have more debates. MSNBC and New Hampshire's Manchester Union Leader proposed to do a debate prior to that state's February 9 primary. Clinton said yes immediately, Sanders very shrewdly said maybe and then negotiated three additional debates. The first of these took place last night and it was unbelievably a good debate. Sanders and Clinton went at it hammer and tong. Chuck Todd and Rachel Maddow did a great job moderating because they kept themselves out of it and did not interfere in the exchanges. I have no idea what it's impact is but I do know

Turn inside out before washing. Machine wash cold with like colors. Use non-chlorine bleach when needed. Tumble dry low, warm iron if needed. Yes, reading and understanding labels is part of a balanced and satisfying life. The most confusing labels are in politics. Bernie and Hillary are arguing over which one of them is the true progressive. Let us consult with Monsieurs Funk and Wagnell. Progressive means moving forward;advancing, proceeding gradually or step by step;striving for or favoring progress or reform esp. social, political, educational, or religious. There you have it, they are both progressive. The use of the word progressive in politics goes back a long way.   In 1912 under the leadership of Republican Theodore Roosevelt a political party called the Progressive Party was launched. Another Progressive Party was formed in 1924 by Robert M. LaFollette. In 1948 yet another Progressive Party was formed and it nominated Henry A. Wallace for President. There was a time when

Politics is a bloodsport. It always has been and odds are it always will be. When candidates vie for the right to be their party's standard bearer the claws come out when it's a real contest. When the thing you want most in the world may be snatched from you the bull starts flying. Hillary Clinton thought she would easily be the Democratic nominee in 2008, everyone did, everyone except Barack Obama. She endured the defeat, made peace with her former adversary and became his Secretary of State for his first term. The Clinton's are multi year planners. By sitting out the second term she could distance herself from the administration while still embracing Barack Obama and his supporters when necessary. She might not even run in 2016 was the oft repeated phrase. That of course was smoke and mirrors. In May of 2015 she made it clear she was all in. Once again the woman who would be President was on the road but this time there would be no impediments, no strong rivals to seriou

The Republican field is dwindling. Today Rand Paul and Rick Santorum dropped out. Santorum has now endorsed Rubio so that should settle everything, game over man. I would have preferred Paul stay in and Carson drop out but we don't always get what we want. Chris Christie is attacking Marco Rubio with the veracity of a Great White Shark chomping a bloody stump. Christie actually believes he has a chance of being the antidote to take out Trump and Cruz. He just doesn't want to face that his time came and went four years ago. The citizens of New Jersey despise him and he had to be goaded into returning there during the recent major winter storms. He's an obnoxious loudmouth who never left his bullyboy persona back in the sandbox. He is clearly auditioning to be the Vice-presidential pick. Every campaign needs a pit bull and it fits him like a glove. Think about it, he's going to need a job. He cannot run for governor again and wouldn't win if he could and they'll

All corners of the media are in overdrive talking about Ted Cruz and how he won Iowa, suggesting it will be studied for years to come. Really? I understand that the media must draw things out, repeat, loop, repeat, loop and look for hidden meaning because no one will watch, listen or read their product without it. Let me pause here cause I ain't no hypocrite, I would gladly take a payday engaging in that activity. As a blogger I could easily skip this subject but no, like a pig in  mud I shall take a wallow. Cruz won Iowa because of two basic strategies, organization and Jesus Christ. When he launched his campaign he brought 500 volunteers up from Texas to begin laying the groundwork in Iowa. He visited all 99 counties and no venue was too small. He constantly touted his conservative Christian evangelical values. He proudly stated over and over, I'm your guy and Jesus wants this. Listen to his stump speeches repeatedly, if you can stomach them, and you will catch the flow and

You know how when you're at the supermarket you see that mass produced coffee cake, it looks good so against your better judgment you buy it. Afterwards you feel vaguely unsatisfied, even a bit queasy. Kind of like the Iowa Caucuses. Thankfully it's behind us now but I wonder how many Iowans have buyer's remorse this morning? The good news is I pretty much nailed it on the outcome, so good for me. This is clear evidence of my political brilliance. Of course I could have been wrong but it wouldn't have been a reflection on my analysis but rather the fault of bad data. The surprise of the night is Marco Rubio coming in at a strong number three, close to Donald Trump's number two. Those high numbers will get Rubio second and third looks in New Hampshire. Hillary Clinton was declared the apparent winner at 4:00A.M. At the time I'm writing the word "apparent" hangs in the air. It's the closest Democratic race in the history of the Iowa Caucuses which